Buffet Economics Explained: Epicurean

 

Can you really “beat a buffet”?

 

This is a question which I have reflected on and the answer is no, you will not be able to beat a buffet because a buffet in a free market economy will either: 

1.      Adjust their food choices or prices to ensure it can’t be regularly beaten; or

2.      Close down entirely

I have experienced both (apologies to anyone who enjoyed oysters at Hyatt Perth or Korean BBQ buffet Hwa Ro), and your supposed “victory” is really long-term loss. However I also doubt Uncle Kerry is going to care that you ate half a sashimi platter and his casino probably isn’t going to go broke because of you.

 

So you can’t “beat” a buffet, but you can get your money’s worth. Without trying to sound too much like a ponzi scheme or a timeshare salesman, you only need to remember PPE; and I’m not talking about the protective kind:

 

1.      Planning

2.      Preparation

3.      Execution

 

(Side note: Protective PPE is also very important at a buffet because people are gross)

 

So let’s run through each one in detail using Epicurean as the example.

 

1. Planning – A guide to buffet ratios and breakeven points

I used to work in a law firm where “FAILING TO PLAN IS PLANNING TO FAIL” was plastered all over the walls. It was a bit threatening and probably borderline coercive for clients to make their wills or bad people will get your hard earned money, but it’s basically the foundation of Buffet Economics.

 

When going into a buffet with no plan, it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the choices and you end up regretting wasting that precious stomach space on steamed hams instead of steamed clams. But if you have a plan, you just need to stick to the process, play your role and focus on the things within your control.

 

Here is a rough map I drew of Epicurean from memory:

 

 

The first thing you need to identify in Buffet Economics is which items have the highest Buffet Economics Ratio, where:

Buffet Economics Ratio = (1 / [Stomach Occupation % x 100]) x Cost Price

For example, if we assume that each oyster costs $2.20 but only takes up 1% of your stomach space, the ratio for oysters will be:

(1 / [1% x 100]) x $2.20 = 2.2

Secondly, if we look at a cut piece of beef from the hot section that costs $4 but takes up 10% of your stomach space, the ratio of beef will be:

(1 / [10% x 100] x $4.00 = 0.4

So yes, a piece of beef ($4) costs more than an oyster ($2.20), but under Buffet Economics, eating that piece of beef is 5.5 times less economical than eating an oyster after accounting for stomach capacity being finite.

In a place like Epicurean, oysters have the best ratio by far, but generally the seafood section of any buffet will probably remain your best bet even without oysters.

Here is an example table of some popular items at Epicurean and their ratios:

(Higher is better)

Okay, so now you’ve worked out the ratios for the items you want to eat. What do we do with this information? Well you want to eat as many high ratio foods as possible in order to achieve your “breakeven” point; the magical point in time where you’ve eaten the cost of the buffet and anything further you eat is pure gravy (literally don’t actually eat gravy at a buffet though, the ratio is horrible).

Now let’s have a look at the dinner price list:

Straight off the bat you can see that not only are Friday and Saturday more expensive, but you also have less time to eat (2 hours vs 3.5 hours). A true buffet economist will never go on those days by choice, so if a friend asks you to go to Epicurean and suggests a Friday or Saturday, you know what you need to do.

 

(Obviously dump your friend for being an idiot, unless they’re paying for you. Then dump them for being an idiot.)

 

Using the completed list of ratios and prices, you should be able to work out how much of each food you need to eat in order “breakeven” (up to your theoretical 100% stomach capacity). Let’s use the oyster example from earlier where each one cost $2.20 and you are going on a Monday to Thursday because you are not a sucker and have an appreciation for Buffet Economics:

From the chart we can see the breakeven point sits around 45 oysters (i.e. $98 worth of oysters), and anything you eat after that is straight profit.

 

Am I advocating eating 45 oysters? Well I once ate 51 in one seating, so yes, absolutely I am. Eat as many as you can until you burst. Then start eating again.

 

(Fun fact: That was also the last time Hyatt served oysters at their buffet.)

 

Of course, that’s not to say that you should only be eating oysters to reach the breakeven point. Combining oysters with other high ratio foods should ensure a nice spread of food while not feeling like you’re ingesting pure mercury from the sea. But if you were down $100 at the casino and you felt like you needed to make your money back at the buffet? You’re only 90 oysters away from achieving it!

Positioning and planning your optimal path is also very important. Epicurean is a large venue and you could conceivably be sitting over 40m away from the oysters and sashimi which sometimes you can’t help, but you can maximise your ratios per trip at the start by exclusively consuming high ratio foods.

Regardless of seating, a detour to the nearest hot plate section is required on each trip, because the plates provided in the seafood sections are half the size of the plates in the hot section, meaning you would need to make twice the number of trips using the cold plates to eat the same amount of food. If you’re sitting 40m away, these efficiencies can become very significant, particularly if you only have a 2 hour window to eat.

 

2. Preparation - Communication is key

Picture this: You are starting a new job at a company where your friend has been working there for a few years already.

 

Naturally, you will ask your friend what the office is like, who is friendly, who to stay away from, where to park… because like any normal human, you don’t want to go in there and feel completely unprepared in order to give yourself the best chance to succeed right?

 

Why is a buffet any different?

 

Why wouldn’t you ask friends who have been there what they enjoyed, what to stay away from and what they would have done differently?

 

I mean the obvious answer is you would of course (except that friend who suggested going on a Saturday because they are an idiot), so absolutely talk to as many people as you can before going to a new buffet.

 

At this point you may be thinking hey! This is an article about economics and I already understand ratios now… why are you advocating asking friends since all they can tell you is about flavour?

 

Well… that’s not exactly correct. Good friends can also provide tips on how to achieve your breakeven goals easier, and let me give you three quick tips using Epicurean as an example:

1.      Towards the start of 2022, Epicurean introduced a separate “Sashimi station” to replace their previous sashimi offering which was a giant plate where people could freely take.

Now the Sashimi station is three pre-cut slices of Salmon, Tuna and Kingfish (the last one may vary by season) in separate plates, under the guise of being more fancy as you take it in a Japanese sashimi cabinet, but this is really the buffet trying to introduce portion control. Even with a big plate, you are only able to fit up to 4 of these sashimi plates at once.

Don’t be fooled, empty as much sashimi onto your big plate that you want and throw away the small plate the sashimi is served in so it’s not clogging up valuable plate space.

2.      There is a common misconception that eating dessert and hot food should never be done. For the most part this is true, but one hack that many people understand but very few exploit, is that sorbet is one of the best palette cleansers of all foods and can act like a cheat code to reset your stomach.

Have you overdone it with the hot food and feel too sickly to eat the other stuff? No problem, grab a quick cup of lemon sorbet from the dessert station and I guarantee you’ll be refreshed and ready to go again within minutes. Overdone with oysters? Grab a hot soup. Don’t be afraid to mix and match between sections.

3.      If you know anyone with a half decent Crown membership card, go with them to get a discount. A 20% discount means you only need 36 instead of 45 oysters to breakeven! Breakeven in the first 15 minutes, then enjoy the rest of your buffet.

 

3. Execution

You’ve planned, you’ve prepared and now it’s the big day.

 

The biggest rookie mistake many people make is not eating for the whole day until dinner. In their head they are thinking “if my stomach is empty, that means I can eat more!”, but scientifically this is incorrect.

 

If you don’t eat during the day, your stomach will contract significantly, leading to a lower capacity. But if you eat just enough during the day, you can maintain your stomach capacity at peak levels whilst still being very empty by the time you reach the buffet.

 

Just like ratios, everyone’s body is different so there is no set formula and how you can achieve this stomach nirvana. But keep experimenting in the days leading up to it and find out what works for you – that’s half the fun anyway!

 

Once you reach the buffet, STICK TO THE PLAN. You will almost certainly encounter new seasonal items which weren’t included during planning that will seem exciting at the time. But you’ve had many hours of planning; the probability of you making a decision in that split second that is better than the one you’ve carefully planned over time is zero. Don’t give in to FOMO, stick to the script and you can always try these new exciting items in peace after you’ve broken even.

 

And if after all that if you don’t manage to breakeven, don’t worry – it’s time to hit the money wheel. C’MONNNNNN FORTY-SEVEN!